Weekly Commentary

Tehran’s Nuclear Rising

In August of 2002, the then spokesperson for the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in Washington DC, Alireza Jafarzadeh, ripped the lid off of Iran’s 18 year old clandestine nuclear weapons program. That revelation included the locations of two nuclear facilities in Arak and Natanz. Prior to that revelation, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had no knowledge either facility existed. Because the Iranian regime did not voluntarily provide the locations or purpose of these facilities, IAEA inspectors had no mandate to inspect or verify the sites at Arak and Natanz were intended for peaceful nuclear energy production or the production of nuclear war heads.

The IAEA eventually did reach an agreement with Iranian officials that declared Iranian nuclear scientists would honor a moratorium on all nuclear related development. IAEA officials smiled and shook hands with Iranian officials as if a negotiated solution had been found. Official seals were put on nuclear processing equipment with an agreement that they not be removed.

Nearly three years later, August 2005, Iran announced its intention to break the deal. It appeared as though Tehran had no intention of compliance with the IAEA. The diplomatic deal had been broken by the Iranian government but not without warnings that this deal was doomed to fail.

The IAEA response urged Iran to re-establish full suspension of all enrichment related activities including the production of feed material, including through tests or production at the Uranium Conversion Facility, on the same voluntary, non-legally binding basis as requested in previous Board resolutions, and to permit the Director General to re-instate the seals that have been removed. Despite all of the IAEA’s urging, Tehran ignored the IAEA.

This brazen disregard for international norms triggered and alarm that sent a shockwave through international energy markets pushing the cost per barrel of crude oil, Iran’s chief export, to 67 dollars a barrel.

Despite the fears Iran’s non-compliance generated among those determined to prevent nuclear proliferation and those concerned about the stability crude oil trade, many were still hopeful that a bargain could be made. Firstly, the seals broken in August were on uranium conversion equipment, not uranium enrichment equipment. Secondly, Russian officials were offering all parties concerned a plausible alternative which was to move uranium enrichment activities to Russia.

Uranium enrichment is the gateway to developing HEU or highly enriched uranium, the substance used to tip nuclear ballistic missiles. Iran’s ability to enrich uranium is tantamount to Iran having a nuclear bomb. The Russian deal would move enrichment facilities to Russia where only LEU or low enriched uranium would be produced for Iran’s nuclear reactors.

This month, Iranian officials continued their campaign of nuclear noncompliance by breaking IAEA seals that covered P-1 centrifuge components, maraging steel, high strength aluminum and centrifuge quality control and manufacturing equipment, as well as two cylinders containing UF6 located at Natanz. The seals also covered some process equipment at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) at Natanz.

This latest Iranian move scuttles Russia’s plausible alternative. Again, Tehran’s brazen disregard for international norms has triggered another alarm, sending another shockwave through international energy markets. Today, the price per barrel of crude is approximately 65 dollars and is on the rise.

In August of 2005, the same month Tehran decided to cut IAEA seals on uranium conversion equipment, the U.S. department of Energy (DOE) indirectly offered an alternative plan to Tehran that demonstrated Iran’s nuclear plan is defunct. With the DOE’s plan, Iran could save hundreds of millions of dollars by pursuing an alternative approach to uranium enrichment and reduce international concerns about its nuclear ambitions.

But why would Iran work toward resolving international tensions and save millions of dollars doing it when they can push the price of crude through the roof and make billions? The answer, international crisis feeds the government of Iran and it is a system better described as an organized criminal enterprise.

It must therefore be economically, and diplomatically isolated and ultimately dismantled. And that’s exactly what the two-decade long resistance of the Iranian people is determined to accomplish. For the sake of democracy and peace in Iran and for the sake of regional stability and security, the Iranian democratic opposition must be helped in any way or shape possible to achieve this goal. (USADI)
 

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The US Alliance for Democratic Iran (USADI), is a US-based, non-profit, independent organization, which promotes informed policy debate, exchange of ideas, analysis, research and education to advance a US  policy on Iran which will benefit America’s interests, both at home and in the Middle East, through supporting Iranian people’s  aspirations for a democratic, secular, and peaceful government, free of tyranny, fundamentalism, weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism.

USADI supports the Iranian peoples' aspirations for democracy, peace,  human rights, women’s equality, freedom of expression, separation of  church and state, self-determination, control of land and resources,  cultural integrity, and the right to development and prosperity.

The USADI is not affiliated with any government agencies, political groups or parties. The USADI administration is solely responsible for its activities and decisions.