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USADI Commentary
Iran’s Electoral Farce
Iranians know it full well:
The upcoming June 17 presidential election in Iran is a farce, a
futile attempt by the ruling regime to give itself an aura of
legitimacy so its advocates and apologists abroad can justify
their lucrative commerce with Tehran. The June election
therefore must be viewed only from the prism of factional
rivalries within the clerical rule.
Since coming to power in
1979, the ruling theocracy in Iran has used elections to serve
the clerical establishment, which is built on the doctrine of
velayat-e faqih, the absolute supremacy of clerical rule.
All institutions of power in
Iran such as the Guardian Council, the Parliament, the Assembly
of Experts and many other local councils provide a veneer of
democracy and popular participation. Their main task, however,
is to safeguard the pillars of the theocracy.
To this end, the June
election will be no different from the other two dozens held
since 1979. The Guardian Council, which acts as a vetting body
to filter out those deemed un-Islamic and disloyal, has
disqualified every candidate except eight: four former senior
Revolutionary Guards commanders, two top mullahs, and two
establishment figures turned “reformist”.
According to Iran’s
Constitution only those with unfettered allegiance to the
velayat-e faqih could become a candidate, making it
impossible for Iran’s genuinely democratic political forces,
which appropriately reject the whole velayat-e faqih
doctrine to run. Indeed, every election since 1981 has been
boycotted by the democratic opposition.
Call them reformist,
pragmatist, conservative, the fact remains that those running in
the election, the “crazy eight” as they are known in Iran, are
absolutely committed to preserving the terror-mongering
theocracy.
The first four years after
Khomeini’s death in 1989, the so-called moderate Rafsanjani's
band wagon was packed with many leaders of Western capitals. The
following four years, however, was marked by people stepping on
each other to get off it.
In1997, Khatami’s band wagon
was even more crowded and the second Clinton administration was
fully on board. Indeed, Khatami’s presidency was the height of a
delirium in Washington, Paris, London, and Berlin, which
suffered from a paralyzing notion that with the “Ayatollah
Gorbachev” at the helm, Iran was going to be on its way toward a
major rehabilitation.
With hollow rhetoric about
the “rule of law” and “civil society” at home and “dialogue
among civilizations” abroad, Khatami became the darling of the
West. The most fundamental fact about Iran was lost on the
Europeans: Iran’s velayat-e faqih system of governance is
structurally and intrinsically incapable of democratic change.
The notion of democracy co-existing with velayat-e faqih
is a delusion whose propagation has only served to prolong the
clerical rule.
The misreading of Khatami’s
presidency was not just a futile theoretical exercise in
political science. It indeed played a major role in perpetuating
the false notion of “change from within” the theocratic system
and resulted in all-out policy of appeasement by capitals on
both sides of the Atlantic.
While Khatami was being given
red-carpet welcome in Europe, Tehran was relentlessly perusing
its secret and ambitious nuclear weapons program and expanding
its terror network across the globe. While fascination with
Khatami’s citation of Western philosophers became fashionable in
our policy circles, public execution and amputation of limbs and
death by stoning inside Iran continued unabated.
Eight years on, one would
expect that lessons have been learned and the era of drafting
policy based on the illusion of change from within the theocracy
has come to a definitive end. Alas, that’s not how the EU’s
big-3 is dealing with Tehran. There is a growing, albeit
exceedingly dangerous, tendency to pin the success of the
otherwise failed nuclear talks with Tehran on Hashemi Rafsanjani
victory in the upcoming elections.
The suggestion that
Rafsanjani, a disgraced murderer and godfather of Tehran’s
nuclear weapons program, could play this role speaks volume of
the appeasement camp’s desperation. They know full well that
once appeasement of Tehran rogue rulers has been put aside,
there is no other option except recognizing the indigenous
anti-regime movement in Iran that is seeking to establish a
secular democratic government.
The lucrative trade with
Iran, in light of the mullahs' readiness to auctioneer the
country’s national wealth in exchange for diplomatic and
political incentives, prevents the EU-3 leaders and their
Europeanist allies in Washington from realizing that only when
Iran is free of tyranny, there would be an end to terrorism and
weapons of mass destruction.
(USADI)
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The Christian Science Monitor
June 2, 2005
At Tehran's grand bazaar, a season of
discontent
TEHRAN - It
was once the spiritual core of
Iran's
Islamic revolution, where popular anger and financial support
welled for the movement that swept away the Shah in 1979 and
propelled the mullahs to power.
But today,
Tehran's grand bazaar - a sprawling indoor retail mall selling
everything from Persian rugs to women's bikinis - is host to
very different sentiments.
Instead of
loyally supporting the Islamic regime, this bastion of political
and religious conservatism is reflecting the seething
resentments and discontents now finding expression across
Iranian society.
The sum
manifestation of the bazaar's dissatisfaction is a widespread
intent not to vote in next month's presidential election, in
which eight candidates - of 1,014 initially registered - have
been cleared to run by the watchdog Guardian Council.
"We won't
vote for any of them - they are robbers," said Hasan, a textile
wholesaler.
Hasan's
threat, echoed by fellow traders, presents a grim prospect for
leaders who hope for a high turnout to establish their
democratic legitimacy.
Hasan should
be one of the regime's most fervent champions. Fidgeting with
prayer beads, he removes from his wallet two photos of turbaned
clerics whom he says are close relatives. "I am from a clerical
family," he explains. "I campaigned in 1979 for the forces of
[Ayatollah Ruhollah] Khomeini to get rid of the Shah. But this
religion has got us tied by our hands and feet."
Voicing the
heretical opinion that the system of velayet-e faqih (infallible
rule by a supreme religious jurisprudent) is inappropriate for
Iran, he goes on: "The first characteristic of a marja-e taqlid
(a senior cleric with a following) should be courage. None of
them have that. In the past, if somebody insulted clerics, you
would argue with them. But why should we do that now? Why
shouldn't we criticize them if they have been lying?"
Hasan's
accusations range from the general to the specific. He says
authorities lied about Zahra Kazemi, a Canadian photographer who
died of injuries sustained in custody after she was arrested for
taking photos of a demonstration two years ago…
Within this
seemingly inchoate potpourri lies a theme: unhappiness with 26
years of Islamic rule. Into this comes the election, scheduled
for June 17. The front- runner is Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani,
a two-time former president, who claims he can heal the rift
between reformers and hard-liners. Mr. Rafsanjani, who was
president between 1989 and 1997, also says he wants to ease
tensions with America…
"I don't
think anyone will vote for Rafsanjani," said Ali, another
textile wholesaler. "During his first presidency, there was
widespread poverty. The only people who will vote are those
government employees who need the election stamp on their
documents to keep their jobs. The bazaar is still conservative,
but our souls have been killed."
Reza, a
carpet trader, voiced another discontent. "The poor feel
insecure because they have uncomfortable lives that often force
them into prostitution and drug addiction," he says, adding that
he will not vote. "The rich are worried because they feel they
could be arrested at any time.
"What they
are showing is not the true Islam. It should be about giving
welfare to people, not oppressing them."…
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NBC Nightly
News
Jun 2, 2005
Iran
remains a study in contrasts
SOUTH
OF TEHRAN, Iran — Tehran is a city of great contrasts in a land
with a split personality. Is the future of Iran young men with
long hair talking on cell phones or is it masses gathered for
prayer? Is Iran a country prepared for the 21st century or one
stuck in the last 30 years?
It pretends
to be a democracy, with presidential elections in two weeks.
But in Iranian politics, there's a higher power. Whichever
candidate wins the presidential election on June 17, one man
still will have all the power.
He is Said al
Khamenei, the keeper of the flame of Ayatollah Khomeini and the
nation's supreme religious leader. The politicians have
elections; Said al Khamenei runs the country.
One of the
political clerics claims he can change that. Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani is a conservative former president who is now talking
vaguely about improving relations with America.
But Iranian
students I spoke with expect no real change.
"Many people
in Iran don't want to vote in this election," said one.
They've heard
promises of reform before. Will they vote?
"No, of
course not," said another. "It's not in the way of democracy."
At Friday
prayers, the invocation is, "Marg bar Amrika." In case you don't
recognize the chant, it is "death to
America."
We first heard it in 1979, when Iranian students seized the
American Embassy and took hostages in a long and dangerous
standoff. That was the end of U.S.-Iranian relations and the
peak of power for Khomeini.
Today, the
old walled-off embassy is a headquarters for the Revolutionary
Guard and a billboard for anti-American slogans. But it draws
little attention.
The Iranian
economy is a much larger issue. With its rich oil and gas
deposits, Iran should be one of the most prosperous nations in
the world, but everyone agrees the Iranian economy is a mess.
It's a combination of corruption, state mismanagement, high
unemployment and hyperinflation… There are a million young
Iranians entering the job market every year and only half that
many jobs. And no one has any answers.
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Iran Focus
June 1, 2005
Survey: 92
percent of voters to stay away from polls
Tehran, Jun.
01 - A nationwide survey conducted by an Iranian opposition
group showed widespread voter apathy in Iran's upcoming June 17
presidential elections.
The People’s
Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) said in a press release
that a survey of 1,730 adults eligible to vote showed that 92
percent of voters intend to boycott the elections. The survey
was based on interviews conducted between May 27 and May 30,
2005.
While the
PMOI as an opposition group has clear interests in promoting a
boycott of the polls, independent observers also believe that
this year’s presidential election is a lackluster event that has
failed so far to generate any interest among Iranians.
“It’s hardly
a choice to make people motivated,” said Mohamed Rezaie, a
Paris-based political scientist. “On the ballot, you have two
mullahs, four Revolutionary Guards generals, and two leftovers
from Khatami’s cabinet who have no credibility. Add to this the
rising discontent, and you see why the boycott appeal has never
been as strong as it is today.”
Of the eight
percent who said that they would be taking part in the
elections, 4.7 percent said that they would be voting for
ex-President Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and 3.0 percent said
they favoured hard-line candidate Ali Larijani. Only one person
said that he planned to vote for ex-Majlis speaker Mehdi
Karroubi.
Eleven of
those surveyed said that they planned to throw blank ballots in
the boxes. Blank votes made up a significant percentage of the
ballots in the last election, as many of the voters simply go to
the polling stations to have their ID cards stamped. Anyone
whose ID card is not stamped could face a series of
consequences, such as being refused public sector jobs.
A total of
1,730 people from a variety of backgrounds and in different
sectors of society were surveyed, according to the PMOI
statement.
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Agence France Presse
May 31,
2005
In Iran, a PhD
means... Pizza Hut Delivery work
TEHRAN -
The United States may see oil and terrorism as Islamic Iran's
main exports, but many young people here will be quick to
disagree.
The
Islamic republic, home to some of the most qualified young
people in the Middle East, has been exporting its brain-power at
an alarming rate -- with an estimated 150,000 frustrated
graduates taking flight every year.
And as a
joke going around Iranian universities puts it, having a PhD
means you're more than likely to head overseas for a job doing
Pizza Hut delivery.
"It
doesn't really matter what your graduation grade is. It makes no
difference what contacts you have. You just cannot find a decent
job," complained Somayeh, a 25-year-old graduate of industrial
design.
Officially, the unemployment rate among graduates stands at
around 16 percent. Experts say the real figure is far higher,
and caution further that the figures are also hiding an
additional, far larger problem of underemployment.
"For a
simple secretary who answers the phone, they pay 800,000 rials
(90 dollars) a month. How can someone raise a family with such a
low salary?" Somayeh said.
The eight
candidates bidding for Iran's presidency have all been paying
lip-service to the unemployment issue, but the signs are that
few young people have been convinced that change is on the
horizon.
Turning
around a stagnant economy strong on providing bland,
job-for-life and low-paid administrative work but little else
will be a tough task, most Iranians seem to agree.
The other
attraction of heading abroad is greater individual freedoms --
and this is another factor that leaves young people uninspired
by the forthcoming presidential elections.
The polls
will mark the end of the mandate of incumbent President Mohammad
Khatami, who managed to lure voters in 1997 and 2001 but failed
to live up to his promise to shake-up the way the Islamic
republic is run.
"I do not
think there will be a large number of people, especially among
the youth, who will be voting," said Somayeh.
"For
Khatami's first and second election, me and my family rushed out
to vote. But he couldn't solve the problem of unemployment, so
what can the next president do?"
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