USADI Commentary

Iran's Rising Intransigence

In recent weeks, governments and Iran observers, alike, have focused on Iran's incoming president Mahamoud Ahmadinejad, and rightly so. Meanwhile, Tehran's revived intransigence at home and abroad has reinforced the view that the door to policy of engagement of any kind has in effect been slammed shot.

Crackdown on social and political dissent at home, nuclear weapons development, influence consolidation in Iraq, and terrorism, are four main areas where Tehran has shown early signs of escalation and defiance.

At home, just in matter of two weeks nearly a dozen Iranians have been executed. The killings of dissidents have also been on the rise. A young Iranian Kurd was murdered brutally after his arrest during an anti-regime protest in western city of Mahabad last week, leading to further protests in the city. This follows the murder of several youths in the southwestern city of Ahwaz whose maimed bodies were found in the city river following their arrest during a major antigovernment riot.

The regime has also stepped up political repression and cracked down on demonstrations, calling for the release of political prisoners. With appointment of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Ahmadi Moghaddam as the new chief of Iran's regular police force, darker days loom.

On the nuclear issue, echoing the views of the office of Khamenei, the incoming president Ahmadinejad has said "we should talk with the Europeans on our own terms, not on their terms." Following a meeting with members of the rubber-stamp parliament, Ahamdinejad told reporters "there will be new measures concerning foreign policy."

Still, the most telling statement has come from the mullahs' Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). Referring to the EU's expected security and economic incentive package, the SNSC's spokesman Ali Aqamohammadi told news agencies that "Even if the West provided us with all economic, political and security incentives, Iran would not drop its nuclear fuel program."

And in a thinly-veiled threat, he added, "our enemies are determined to deprive Iran of civil nuclear technology.. If they commit this error, the only thing that will happen is that our youths will stand alongside their revolutionary fathers and resist".

Shortly after Ahmadinejad's well-choreographed win, Al-Arabia TV reported that a group in Iran, the Global Headquarters for the Commemoration of Islam's Martyrs, had recruited nearly 40,000 human "time bombs" ready to carry out "martyrdom operations to liberate Islamic lands."

The group and similar outfits, which enjoy the full backing of the IRGC's top brass, are the brainchild of the Ahmadinejad who until recently was the Mayor of Tehran and used the municipality to give these terrorist training centers unfettered access to capital's resources.

Ahamadinejad has already been a source of inspiration for the IRGC-sponsored Lebanon's Hizbollah, which boasted that his election would "revive and rejuvenate" the goals of the Islamic Revolution. "With the victory of Ahmadinejad in Iran's presidential race, this country returned to the foundations and revolutionary objectives which Ayatollah [Ruhollah] Khomeini founded", a member of Hezbollah's political bureau said.

In a speech shortly after his win, Ahamdinejad vowed to "spread the Islamic Revolution throughout the world". "Thanks to the blood of the martyrs, a new Islamic revolution has arisen and, God willing, the Islamic revolution of 2005 will cut off the roots of injustice in the world", he said.

Tehran has already added assassination attempts against Iranian dissidents based in Iraq to the list of its ongoing mischief. According to a statement issued by an Iranian Kurdish dissident group, the National Islamic Organization of Iranian Kurdistan (KHABAT), a terrorist attempt last month on the life of a member of the group's political bureau, was thwarted, and Loqman Ahmadi, an undercover agent for Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security, was apprehended.

Touching on the matter of Tehran's involvement in the Iraqi affairs, US Congressman Curt Weldon (R-PA) told NBC's "Meet the Press" that Iraqi officials had told him "Syria may have the largest number (of insurgents) from outside of Iraqi country, but Iran overwhelmingly has the quality behind the insurgency."

He added that Iranian leaders were major players in the insurgency, and that "Ayatollah Khomeini is the problem, and he has as separate council of nine that's been fomenting unrest in Iraq during this entire time." Weldon told NBC that Iran's long-term plan was to force any government that takes hold in Iraq to eventually become a partner with Iran.

It is evident from what has transpired in the weeks since Ahmadinejad's win that Tehran is openly shedding all the pretences. It is moving full speed to take advantage of having all the key powers in the hands of the IRGC to make its gains in all four areas mentioned above irreversible.

The silver lining in all of this is that the political coup launched by the office of Khamenei and executed by the IRGC to bring Ahmadinejad out of the ballot box could very well turn out to be the mullahs' unraveling under the mounting weight of domestic and international pressure. Is the EU watching? (USADI)

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San Francisco Chronicle

July 17, 2005
Iran is Setting Up to be Dominant in Iraq

Tehran -- What if the United States defeats the insurgency in Iraq only to see Iran emerge as the dominant foreign power? That's precisely what many Iraqi exiles and Iranian officials say will happen in the years ahead. Iran is flexing its religious and political muscle in Iraq, much to the chagrin of the Bush administration. Iran has strong historic ties to Iraq's recently elected president and prime minister, as well as numerous political parties and armed militias.

While the United States faces a tenacious insurgency, with more than 1, 750 soldiers killed and strong international criticism, Iran is prepared to maintain long-term influence in Iraq, according to Iranian leaders such Mehdi Rafsanjani, son of former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. "We think America has done the best work for us, removing Saddam, our worst enemy," Mehdi Rafsanjani told me.

On June 24, Iranians elected hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president. The Bush administration suspects he will continue to allow foreign fighters to slip across the Iranian border to fight in Iraq. "We are worried that they (Iranians) are providing assistance to some of the elements that are close to the terrorists and that are in a position to undermine the political process that is going forward," U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley told the Voice of America.

The real battle between the United States and Iran is not over border crossings or insurgent support. Rather, it's a struggle for who will have the most influence in Iraq when the war ends..

"Iran and Iraq have a very, very good relationship," said Majid Ghammas, head of the Supreme Council in Iran. "The Iranian government understood the situation in Iraq better than other countries." The Supreme Council favors a fundamentalist interpretation of political Islam. "Iraq should be an Islamic state," said Ghammas. "Islam should be the source for our constitution, and no law should be approved that is against Islam."

While Iranian leaders would like to see Shiite fundamentalists come to power, they are also pragmatic. Iran has long supported secular Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani, for example, who is now president of Iraq. "Anyone who comes to power in Iraq, it's no problem," said Mehta Rafsanjani. "These are all our friends." ..

Iran hopes that the United States can crush the insurgency and that free elections will keep its allies in power. If Iraq eventually breaks apart into Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite countries, Iranian officials think they will have strong influence in Kurdistan and the Shiite state. Asked if it's ironic that when the United States eventually withdraws, Iran could have greater influence than the United States, Asefi said, "That is true, but that's not our fault. When Americans are working for us, we'll let them do it."
 

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DPA (German News Agency)
July 16, 2005
No incentive will make Iran drop nuclear fuel

TEHRAN - No incentive would make Iran drop its nuclear fuel programme, the spokesman for Iran's Supreme National Security Council said Saturday. "Even if the West provided us with all economic, political and security incentives, Iran would not drop its nuclear fuel programme," Ali Aqamohammadi told the Iranian Students' News Agency.

The spokesman was referring to a proposal by the EU trio - Britain, France and Germany - which reportedly offered Teheran cooperation in providing nuclear power besides a package of economic and political incentives. "Maintaining nuclear fuel technology is our red line which will also determine whether to continue the talks or not," the spokesman warned.

He said Iran's right to produce its own nuclear fuel was the main basis in the talks with the EU trio since October 2003, adding that Teheran would never ever make any concessions in this regard. Iran wants to resume uranium enrichment in the power plants of Isfahan and Natanz in central Iran for producing its own nuclear fuel.

The EU and the US staunchly oppose this, as enriched uranium could also be used for producing atomic bombs. Teheran has warned that anything except acknowledgement of Iran's legitimate right to pursue nuclear technology would be unacceptable and lead to severance of negotiations.

Another cause for concern inside and outside Iran was seen as the probable change in the nuclear delegation, with its chief Hassan Rowhani being replaced following the end of President Mohammad Khatamis presidential term next month.

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Iran Focus
July 17, 2005
Iran ups ante ahead of nuclear talks

Paris, Jul. 17 - Iran paraded its senior officials over the weekend to hammer a tough message to the European Union ahead of the next round of nuclear talks expected to take place in August.

Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi told the official Iranian news agency in Tehran on Sunday that his government would reject any proposal by the European Union's trio - Britain, Germany and France - that does not "enshrine uranium enrichment".

He firmly ruled out any possibility of Iran giving up uranium enrichment, a key demand of the EU-3 and the United States, who say enriched uranium could also be used for producing atomic bombs. "We will take our decision", Kharrazi said, hinting that Iran would resume enrichment activities.

Several other senior Iranian officials took a similar stance, hoping to raise the pressure on the European foreign ministers ahead of their talks in Brussels on Monday, where they will be debating the EU policy on Iran in light of the election of an ultra-conservative figure as the country's new president.

"If the (EU) proposal considers Iran's legitimate and legal right to enrich uranium, we will continue the process (of talks); otherwise we won't accept the proposal", Sirous Nasseri, a senior member of Iran's nuclear negotiation team told the news agency ISNA on Saturday.

"The Europeans are aware what kind of proposal can be acceptable to Iran. If their proposal denies the right to undertake uranium enrichment, Iran will definitely not accept it", Nasseri said.

Ali Aghamohammadi, spokesman for Iran's Supreme National Security Council, was equally harsh. "Even if they give us the whole world's economic, political and security incentives to give up the nuclear fuel cycle, we will not do so," he told ISNA.

EU officials have warned that resumption would probably see Iran's case referred to the UN Security Council, which could impose sanctions on Tehran. The EU-3 are expected to offer their final proposals to Tehran by early or mid-August.

A senior foreign policy adviser to President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad joined the fray on Sunday by warning the Europeans that Iran would soon resume enrichment activities in sites in Isfahan and Natanz, if the Europeans fail to allow Iran to go ahead with its full nuclear fuel cycle programme.

"I think the Europeans have concluded that they must accept the continuation of uranium enrichment [by Iran] and our full legal rights in this regard, which are our minimal demands", Majlis Deputy Manouchehr Mottaki, widely tipped to receive a key foreign policy portfolio in next government, told ISNA news agency.

If the EU-3 fail to include Iran's enrichment activities in their offer, "we will start practical steps in Isfahan and then in Natanz [enrichment site] and will take practical steps in keeping with Iran's inherent right to possess nuclear fuel cycle", Mottaki said.

Kharrazi sidestepped strong indications in Tehran that Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Hassan Rowhani will be replaced, saying instead that "members of Iran's negotiating team will not be replaced, as they are qualified experts".

The team Kharrazi referred to already includes several hardliners allied with Ahmadinejad, including Hossein Moussavian and Sirous Nasseri. Ahmadinejad announced last Tuesday that he would adopt a new foreign policy, including changes in the nuclear field.

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The US Alliance for Democratic Iran (USADI), is a US-based, non-profit, independent organization, which promotes informed policy debate, exchange of ideas, analysis, research and education to advance a US  policy on Iran which will benefit America’s interests, both at home and in the Middle East, through supporting Iranian people’s  aspirations for a democratic, secular, and peaceful government, free of tyranny, fundamentalism, weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism.

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