Weekly Commentary

Sleepwalking In Iraq?

Iran’s multi-faceted and multi-pronged campaign of destabilization in Iraq is nothing short of a strategic disaster. It represents an enormous threat to future of Iraq as a stable, peaceful and democratic nation and one which could plunge the whole region and beyond into carnage for years to come. In this respect, this threat is on par with mullahs going nuclear, if not more.

Tehran is already challenging Washington and Europe. Indeed, the proposed cabinet of Iran’s new president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a who is who of Iran’s former commanders of the notorious Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and other criminal officials. It is the ultimate confirmation of the view that Ahmadinejad’s IRGC-engineered presidency is in effect a declaration of war by the mullahs’ regime on Iranians and the rest of us. It would be disastrously naive to view the rogue rising of the clerical regime as mere saber rattling.

While most headlines have been dealing with the issue of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, Tehran’s meddling in Iraq has by and large dropped off our strategic radar screen. It has been only recently that the administration began to voice serious concerns about it. Meanwhile, every call for a taking on Tehran's fundamentalist campaign in Iraq is countered by suggestions that such a move would prompt the mullahs to really unleash their proxies in Iraq.

Two years on, can anyone realistically argue that the situation in Iraq could get any worse than what it already is? Have the mullahs shown any restrain in their secret war in Iraq?

According to an investigative reporting in recent issue of the Time magazine, the IRGC is creating insurgency cells in Iraq, using “a new breed of roadside bomb more lethal than any seen before; based on a design from the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hizballah”. The Time’s article goes on to say, “With an elected Shi'ite-dominated government in place in Baghdad and the U.S. preoccupied with quelling the Sunni-led insurgency, the Iranian regime has deepened its imprint on the political and social fabric of Iraq, buying influence in the new Iraqi government, running intelligence-gathering networks and funneling money and guns to Shi'ite militant groups--all with the aim of fostering a Shi'ite-run state friendly to Iran.” As for the relative inattention paid to Iranian meddling, a British military intelligence officer told Time Magazine, "It's as though we are sleepwalking."

Tehran’s campaign in Iraq is not just some small scale operation in reaction to the US involvement in Iraq. “Businesses, front companies, religious groups, NGOs and aid for schools and universities are all part of the mix” according to Time.

A thorough examination of the data at hand clearly indicates that the mullahs’ grand plan for Iraq was put into effect long before the war. According to Time, “Before the March 2003 invasion, military sources say, elements of up to 46 Iranian infantry and missile brigades moved to buttress the border. “ In an April 2003 issue, Newsweek reported that “U.S. intelligence has tracked roughly a dozen Iranian agents directly from Tehran to Al Kut (southern Iraq) in the last month.. What really unsettles U.S. officials is the dawning sense that the Iranians planned in advance to move in as soon as Saddam’s men were gone.”

And this is in light of the fact that in the pre-war back-channel talks between Tehran and Washington, the administration thought it had reached an agreement with the mullahs not to meddle in Iraq after Saddam Hussein. According to a May 12, 2003 report in the Wall Street Journal, “In January [2003]... the Iranians were told that one of the U.S. war aims was to eliminate the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, a longtime Iranian goal. In return, the U.S. asked Iran not to send armed fighters into Iraq.”

The mullahs, however, could not let go of their long- held doctrinal goal of establishing a client regime in Iraq; even in exchange for elimination of their mortal enemy, the Iranian Mujahedin. They reneged on the deal and unleashed their forces into Iraq to exploit the post-war security and political vacuum.

On the surface, Washington may seem to have every justification to continue pushing its ‘Iran problem’ in Iraq to the back-burner. This, however, would amount to continuation of its monumental error in dealing with the mullahs and, for that matter, with the Mujahedeen, before, during, and after the war.

“Iran shows every sign of upping the ante in Iraq, which may ultimately force the U.S. to search out new allies in Iraq... who can counter the mullahs' encroachment,” Time suggested. We could not agree more. (USADI)
 

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Agence France Presse

August 16, 2005
More than one Iranian weapons cache found in Iraq

ASUNCION - US forces have found Iranian weapons inside Iraq on more than one occasion over the past couple of months, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Tuesday. Rumsfeld, who was here for talks with Paraguayan leaders, told reporters on the flight from Washington that "no one ought to be surprised" by the arms smuggling since Iran would like to replicate its own Islamic regime in Iraq. "And we know that the system of government they have, with a handful of clerics running all over the place telling everybody what to do, is fundamentally inconsistent with the kind of constitution that is currently being drafted in Iraq," he said.

Rumsfeld last week charged for the first time that a cache of Iranian weapons had been found in Iraq. But in his comments Tuesday, Rumsfeld said Iranian weapons have been found on more than one occasion over the past couple of months. He did not elaborate, but an intelligence official told AFP last week that US intelligence believes at least one cache of newly manufactured bombs came from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. "We know we're finding Iranian weapons inside of the country," Rumsfeld said. "They don't just get there by accidents. They don't drive over the border," he said.

Rumsfeld has said the behavior of Iran and Syria is among a variety of factors that will determine how soon US forces can turn over security to Iraqi forces in Iraq. Rumsfeld has also stressed the need for Iraqi leaders to meet their deadlines for drafting a constitution, something they failed to do this week when they put off an August 15 deadline for a week. "I think a delay is not helpful," Rumsfeld said. "How a few days' delay in this process would affect the insurgency, I think that it wouldn't. Who knows? Time will tell, we'll all know soon enough." But he said Iraqi have made "good progress" and expressed confidence they will still beat the next milestone, an October 15 referendum on the constitution.
 

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The Washington Times

August 16, 2005
2 Iranian dissidents abducted in capital

U.S. officials said yesterday that two members of an Iranian dissident group living under American protection in Iraq have been kidnapped, and organization members said they fear the men will be turned over to Tehran for execution. The members of the People's Mojahedin of Iran (PMOI) were grabbed while they were purchasing supplies in Baghdad's Karrada shopping district on Aug. 4, said the U.S.-led military coalition in Iraq. A PMOI spokesman said they had been escorted on the shopping trip by U.S. military police and were seized by eight men in police uniforms.

PMOI member Hussein Madani said witnesses saw Hussein Pouyan and Mohammad Ali Zahedi bundled out of the back door of the Ministry of Interior later that day and placed into two white sport utility vehicles with tinted windows. The group, also known as Mojahedin-e Khalq or People's Mojahedin, has long been on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations because of attacks on Americans in Iran in the 1970s. But the group, fierce opponents of Iran's clerical regime, also has been an important source of intelligence on Tehran's nuclear program and has many supporters in Congress.

Rep. Edolphus Towns, New York Democrat, wrote to Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari late last week urging him to protect the two men. The PMOI thinks they were seized at Iran's bidding. "It is of great importance that you safeguard the lives of these two dissidents and be sure that they will be returned to Camp Ashra[f]," said Mr. Towns in a letter on Friday made available by the PMOI. "We ask you not to allow the actions of the Iranian leaders adversely affect the Iraq people," Mr. Towns wrote.

PMOI members live under U.S. protection in Camp Ashraf outside Baghdad. All 3,600 members are considered "protected persons" under the Fourth Geneva Convention, which establishes the rights of civilians and noncombatants in times of war. The coalition said Iraqi police had been asked to investigate the "abduction" of the two men while on "a routine logistics trip" in eastern Baghdad. "Officials are undertaking a complete review of security risks and procedures in relation to trips off of Camp Ashraf in light of the abduction," the coalition said.

Mr. Madani, speaking by telephone from Baghdad, said Mr. Pouyan and Mr. Zahedi were under U.S. military police escort when two cars with police markings drove up. Eight men in police uniforms and protective vests jumped out and grabbed the two, he said. He said witnesses identified the abductors as members of the Ministry of Interior's special security forces, which are made up largely of the Iranian- trained Badr Corps -- the armed wing of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the leading political party in Iraq's ruling alliance.

Mr. Madani said the U.S. escorts were close by but not next to the two men when they were seized. He said the Americans went to a local police station and the Ministry of Interior to ask about Mr. Pouyan and Mr. Zahedi but did not find them. "We have spoken to many local shop owners and witnesses, and some security elements ... and they believe the individuals were with the Ninth Badr Corps and acting under the auspices of the [Ministry of the Interior]," he said.

Citing witnesses, Mr. Madani said the two were taken in separate police cars between 1 and 1:15 p.m. to the fourth floor of the ministry building and within the hour taken out by the back door. "They were taken to safe houses in Baghdad," said Mr. Madani, citing military and intelligence officials. He suspects the kidnapping was not the work of ordinary criminals, but was politically motivated.
 

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The US Alliance for Democratic Iran (USADI), is a US-based, non-profit, independent organization, which promotes informed policy debate, exchange of ideas, analysis, research and education to advance a US  policy on Iran which will benefit America’s interests, both at home and in the Middle East, through supporting Iranian people’s  aspirations for a democratic, secular, and peaceful government, free of tyranny, fundamentalism, weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism.

USADI supports the Iranian peoples' aspirations for democracy, peace,  human rights, women’s equality, freedom of expression, separation of  church and state, self-determination, control of land and resources,  cultural integrity, and the right to development and prosperity.

The USADI is not affiliated with any government agencies, political groups or parties. The USADI administration is solely responsible for its activities and decisions.