Weekly Commentary

Thwarting Tehran’s “Secret War” in Iraq

In his address at the National Endowment for Democracy last week, President George Bush called Iraq the “central front” in the war on terror. Warning that enemies of democracy and freedom were working to create a "totalitarian empire" from Spain to Indonesia, he specifically named Iran and Syria as "allies of convenience" for Islamic radicalism.

The US President stressed that “the influence of Islamic radicalism is also magnified by helpers and enablers” and that state sponsors like Syria and Iran which have “a long history of collaboration with terrorists,” deserve “no patience from the victims of terror.”

Mr. Bush was not alone in this much overdue public acknowledgment of the wicked and immensely destabilizing campaign of Iran’s clerical regime in Iraq. In the past two weeks, quoting senior British officials, the British press has carried front-page stories on how Iran is supplying weapons to Shia militias in Iraq. Late summer, Time magazine revealed that Iran’s terror-sponsoring regime was also supplying the Sunni death squads in Iraq specially- designed explosives to use against coalition troops. The point was again stressed last week in London where a senior official told Reuters, “There was evidence that there were links to certain Sunni groups that were part and parcel of Iranian efforts to destabilize Iraq.” The British Prime Minister Tony Blair told reporters the next day that that new explosive devices used by insurgents in Iraq "lead us either to Iranian elements or to Hezbollah," in Lebanon.

Still the most ominous evidence of Iran’s meddling is reported by both Shia and Sunni Iraqis. Residents in three southern Iraqi cities near the Iranian border told the Associated Press of “unexplained disappearances of Iraqis who are publicly critical of Iran.” They said Iran's security and intelligence agencies freely operate in Basra and nearby cities.

Ridha Jawad Taqi, a senior official from the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq – a brainchild of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security – acknowledged last week that "Yes, the Iranians have an agenda in Iraq and want their friends to be in power.”

According to the New York Times, Brig. Muter al- Saadi, commander of the Iraqi police south of Basra, has called Iran the "the Devil's location." He said Iran wants havoc to convince the United States that it could never keep Iraq stable, the Times reported.

Indeed Iran’s grand plan for Iraq is to establish its own political, intelligence, and security infrastructure in order to influence and stir the future direction of Iraq. Already Tehran’s finger prints are seen in many of the key ministries and even the draft constitution of Iraq.

On October 7, the National Front of Iraq published a full-page political advertisement in the New York Times stating that “more than 1,000,000 Iraqi citizens, 4,500 Iraqi lawyers and jurists, and 55 political parties and groups” have condemned the Iranian regime’s “secret war and undeclared occupation” of Iraq.

The key to understanding and thwarting Tehran's multi-faceted and multi-pronged campaign in Iraq is to recognize that to achieve its goal in Iraq, the mullahs would not hesitate to work with Sunni or Shia groups alike as long as they could contribute to the mullahs’ grand plan. This is not about Tehran working to help the Shia Iraqis against minority Sunnis or as some would say about Tehran wanting to prevent a future Iraqi attack by making sure a friendly regime is in power. Tehran’s campaign is expansionist in nature and presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was a clear bid to boost this campaign.

More than two and half years on, world leaders have finally begun to grasp a fraction of Tehran’s campaign in Iraq. Iran’s rising in Iraq, similar to its advance on the nuclear front is mainly due to the official silence and deliberate inaction. Viewed in the context of dealing with an outlaw regime like Iran, this policy was nothing short of appeasement. President Bush was spot on in saying that “no concession, bribe, or act of appeasement would change or limit” plans of rogue states like Iran. The cause may be not lost after all.

Calling the Islamic fundamentalists' war on humanity “the unfolding of a global ideological struggle” between forces of tyranny and freedom, President Bush in effect recognized the “courage in the cause of freedom” by indigenous movements “that once again will destroy the enemies of freedom.”

Indeed, he stressed that “America is making this stand in practical ways” in this struggle by “standing with dissidents and exiles against oppressive regimes, because we know that the dissidents of today will be the democratic leaders of tomorrow.”

Very eloquent. Just do it. (USADI)
 

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Agence France Presse

October 11, 2005

Iran expecting to win again in Iraqi referendum

TEHERAN - Iran considers itself to be the “main winner” of the US-led invasion of Iraq and the toppling of Saddam Hussein, with the forthcoming Iraqi constitutional referendum likely to reinforce this sentiment, officials said.

The Islamic republic appears happy to keep a low profile ahead of the October 15 vote on Iraq’s new constitution, with officials here confident that friendly Shiite or Kurdish groups will consolidate their already strong position.

In addition, Iran sees the vote as another step towards the departure of foreign troops, even if the clerical regime does not expect them to leave in the immediate future.

“Shiites are in a majority in Iraq and can be expected to act as a common force given the repression they suffered under Saddam,” said Mohammad Ali Abtahi, a former Iranian vice president.

“And naturally, any free election or referendum will benefit the Shiites, the ideological allies of Iran,” he told AFP. “Iran doesn’t even have to do anything for that to happen”.

Iran enjoys close ties with a broad spectrum of Iraqi Shiite groups. The powerful Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) was based in Iran during Saddam’s rule, and Tehran has also established relations with firebrand cleric Moqtada Al Sadr.

Iran also maintains regular contacts with Iraq’s revered Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali Al Sistani, and has also embraced Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Chalabi, a one-time Washington favorite.

On the Kurdish front, the Islamic republic has had longstanding ties with both the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), led by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) of Massoud Barzani, who is president of northern Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish zone.

Although these groups may not necessarily be considered Iran’s firm allies, in that they are either lukewarm or hostile to an Iranian-style regime, they are seen in Tehran as known quantities that pose little threat and that can be influenced.

“We should not emphasize the divisions between Shiites and Sunnis or between Arabs and non-Arabs. But if there are democratic rules, the majority Shiites should strengthen their position,” said Kazem Jalali, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Policy Commission. “Naturally, Iran does have a certain influence in Iraq as a result of its influence with the different groups, namely the Shiites and Kurds,” he said.

As one Tehran-based Western diplomat said: “Iran now considers itself to be the main winner of the US invasion”...

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The Financial Times

October 6, 2005

Britain runs out of patience with its former friends in Tehran

Britain has long recognized that Iran has legitimate political interests in Iraq and strong alliances with Shia groups that now dominate the government - to the point where some Iraqi politicians have complained that the British authorities in Basra have become complacent..

"The Iranians were there from day one - in the south. But the British didn't want to take any action or antagonize them because they didn't want problems in the south," says an Iraqi official. "Now it's getting to be too much."

Officials in Baghdad say Iran has worked meticulously to ensure that its interests are protected in the post- Saddam Hussein era. It has a strong intelligence presence in Iraq and is thought to have provided financial backing and advice to political groups ahead of January's elections.

Last year, Tehran also sought to sign trade deals with southern Iraqi provinces, bypassing the central government in Baghdad.

Whether complacent or simply realistic, the UK's past attitude has now changed, as Iran's behavior has appeared more threatening. British officials believe they have evidence that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has been supplying insurgents in Iraq with weapons technology that has been used in a number of roadside bomb attacks...
 

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The US Alliance for Democratic Iran (USADI), is a US-based, non-profit, independent organization, which promotes informed policy debate, exchange of ideas, analysis, research and education to advance a US  policy on Iran which will benefit America’s interests, both at home and in the Middle East, through supporting Iranian people’s  aspirations for a democratic, secular, and peaceful government, free of tyranny, fundamentalism, weapons of mass destruction, and terrorism.

USADI supports the Iranian peoples' aspirations for democracy, peace,  human rights, women’s equality, freedom of expression, separation of  church and state, self-determination, control of land and resources,  cultural integrity, and the right to development and prosperity.

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